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Dec 2024 corn futures posted a new long-term low of $4.4675 in late February, below the prior low set in November 2023. Noncommercial traders hold a record large net-short futures position.
The columnist argues the long-term downtrend has persisted for over a year.
A record fund short position raises the risk of a short-covering rally, but the chart trend still points to lower prices. Feed buyers should watch positioning for timing of purchases.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.