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Desjardins expects US GDP growth of about 2% in the first quarter and gradual Fed rate cuts, which keeps the dollar at historically high levels. The euro traded just above US$1.08 and the pound near US$1.26.
A firm dollar on gradual Fed easing makes US commodities more expensive for foreign buyers and can soften dollar-denominated grain and meal prices. The effect is broad and moderate.
desjardins.comJimmy Jean, Vice-President, Chief Economist, StrategistMar 28, 2024After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
