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The IEA raised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 110,000 bpd for a fourth time since November, citing Houthi attacks that lengthen Red Sea shipping routes. The agency still sees less demand growth than OPEC.
A firmer demand outlook supports crude prices, and longer Red Sea routes raise freight costs for grain and oilseed imports.
After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.