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Chicago May corn gained $4/t to $167/t in late February and early March as funds covered record net short positions. US maize export contracts reached 1.1 Mt, and Brazil's safrinha planting was 73% complete by end-February.
Argentina's Rosario exchange cut its maize production forecast by 2 Mt to 57 Mt.
Fund short covering and firm US export contracts support corn, while dryness risk for Brazil safrinha and Argentine production cuts add upside risk, limited by producers holding unsold grain.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.