
ABARES projects New South Wales' 2024-25 winter crop at 15.02 Mt, up 36% from 2023-24 and the fifth largest since records began. Wheat yields are forecast to rise 27% on favourable soil moisture and a neutral rainfall outlook.
Southern NSW and Victoria face a more challenging environment.
A large NSW crop would add Australian wheat supply and ease logistics pressure on east coast handling. The outlook weighs on wheat prices, though dryness in parts of the south adds some risk.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.