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Robin Brooks summarizes the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, where discussion centered on US economic outperformance, sticky US inflation and a Fed likely to stay on hold while other central banks cut. He notes the dollar has risen about 30% over the past decade and that option volatility is unusually low.
Expectations of a stronger dollar for longer add pressure on commodity prices quoted in dollars and on emerging-market currencies, which can reduce import demand for feed ingredients.
brookings.eduRobin BrooksApr 25, 2024After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
