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North Dakota economist Tim Petry says cattle market fundamentals remain tight, with strong demand, but futures will be volatile. Recent declines were attributed largely to avian influenza detections in dairy herds and a human case, which spooked investment funds, while cash prices stayed high.
Investor reaction to disease headlines is driving futures volatility even though tight supplies support prices, so buyers should expect choppy futures pricing around news.
agweek.comJenny SchlechtApr 19, 2024After 69 past neutral disease events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 29 past neutral disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
