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Analysis argues that the recent rally in Chicago SRW wheat came mainly from noncommercial traders covering net-short positions, not from improved fundamentals. Cash, basis and futures spreads still point to a bearish market.
The author expects the rally to fade unless funds move for fundamental reasons.
A rally driven by short covering rather than supply tightness is more likely to reverse, which points to limited upside for SRW wheat prices in the near term.
barchart.comDarin NewsomApr 24, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
