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Analyst commentary says many US farmers are holding grain at prices below $4.50 per bushel. The May/July corn spread narrowed from 14 cents to 9 cents, and basis rose 10 cents in the western Corn Belt.
End users appear short of supply as elevators move stored grain on basis contracts.
Tighter basis and narrower carries signal slower cash supply to end users, which can support nearby cash corn prices while farmer selling remains light.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.