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Economists Sara Dorland and Mike McCully discussed the surprises in dairy prices so far in 2024. They highlighted nine months of declining milk production, cheddar prices well below the levels that historically accompany such output, and the wide gap between Class III and Class IV prices.
Lower milk output has not lifted prices as it usually does, and the Class III/IV gap persists. Price direction for milk is unclear, with new cheese capacity and possible butter gains as key factors.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.