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Jim Long's commentary reports that U.S. pork production in the first four months of 2024 is up 0.1% year over year, while USDA projects a 2.8% annual increase that would require about 4% growth over the rest of the year. Lean hog prices are about 91¢/lb against a breakeven near 88¢/lb, and sow slaughter is running above year-ago levels.
If USDA's projected production growth fails to materialize, the market may see tighter pork supplies, supporting hog prices; continued sow liquidation points to limited supply expansion.
pigua.infoMay 13, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Jim Long's 2024-05-13 commentary shows hog production growing slower than USDA projects and hog prices (~91¢) above breakeven (~88¢), a supply-side signal that could support a sharp futures rally on 5/14.
