CBOT corn rose on June 14 on an expected heatwave in the US Midwest. Conab raised its Brazilian second-crop corn forecast 2.3% to 88.1 million tonnes, though that is still about 14% below 2023.
Cocereal estimated European maize output at 64.8 million tonnes.
Expected heat during pollination raises yield risk for the US crop, which supports corn prices and feed costs. Brazil's smaller safrinha crop adds to the global tightness.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.