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Fitch's BMI said the Philippine cut in rice import tariffs from 35% to 15% could boost Vietnamese and Thai export volumes to the Philippines. It argued this would tighten global supply and add upward price pressure, given India's restrictions and the El Niño impact.
Higher Philippine import demand tightens the global rice balance, which is supportive for export prices.
After 168 past bullish policy events, RICE moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.