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Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia reviews 2024 grain and oilseed fundamentals, noting Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continue to disrupt shipping and that the South American soybean harvest is around 215 million tonnes, up 18 million on last year. Soybean is the only oilseed with rising global ending stocks year on year.
A larger South American soybean crop and rising soy stocks point to ample supply for soybean meal, while Red Sea disruption keeps freight costs elevated for imported feed ingredients.
sfs.org.auJul 21, 2024After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 34 past bearish logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.6%), and -1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
