
Research from Trase, commissioned by Fern, finds EU imports were linked to 15% of global deforestation from direct trade in 2019-2021, with Côte d'Ivoire, Brazil and Indonesia the top origins. Cocoa, oil palm products, coffee and soy are the leading exposed commodities, and EU exposure fell 35% between 2018 and 2021.
The data highlights where EUDR compliance will bite hardest, mainly cocoa and palm oil, with limited direct effect on feed grain or meal prices.
After 66 past neutral report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.4% to +2.0%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.