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Agreste puts French soft wheat output at no more than 26.7 million tonnes, down 25% year on year and the lowest in almost 40 years. The drop reflects a historically low yield of 6.24 t/ha and a much smaller planted area of 4.2 million hectares.
A historically small French crop reduces EU export availability and supports wheat prices, with area and yield both contributing to the shortfall.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.