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December lean hog futures have rallied sharply since last summer after the September hog census missed to the low side, with slaughter running lighter than expected. The author sees about $81 as a reasonable target for December contracts.
Futures are trading near $78 against a $97 carcass value.
Lighter hog supplies and a rising futures target point to firmer hog prices, which supports demand for feed in the hog sector.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.