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Australia could gain canola export share if China lifts concerns about the fungus blackleg in Canadian canola. About 40% of Canada's canola exports typically go to China, which accounts for 90% of China's oilseed imports.
Market access for Australian canola would depend on China's phytosanitary stance.
A shift in Chinese demand toward Australian supply would tighten Canadian export flows and could weigh on Canadian canola meal, while supporting Australian supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.