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A StoneX fertilizer analyst said farmers should consider buying potash now in case Belarus cuts production. He noted that Belarus and Russia together account for about a third of world output.
He added that Canadian or Russian cuts would make a larger market impact.
If Belarus, Russia and Canada cut output together, potash supply would tighten and prices would rise, which argues for forward buying before the 2025 season. Belarus alone is unlikely to move prices much.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.