
Rapeseed and canola prices fell sharply in late November, with Winnipeg January canola down about 14% since November 15 and Paris February rapeseed down about 10% over ten days. Soybean oil also dropped about 11% on uncertainty over US biofuel tax credits and fears of tariffs on Canadian canola.
Lower canola and soyoil values reduce the cost of oilseed meal and oil inputs for feed, while the threat of US duties on Canadian canola and uncertainty over biofuel credits point to continued downside pressure.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Soybean oil fell about 11% on uncertainty over US biofuel tax credits and canola tariff fears, so it describes the same selloff, though partly dated after the window.