
Chinese buyers are front-loading Canadian canola purchases ahead of possible anti-dumping tariffs, with exports reaching 2.9 million tonnes against 1.3 million a year earlier. US soybean inspections also reached a four-year high, partly on fears of Chinese retaliation against Trump's proposed tariffs.
Front-loaded Chinese demand supports soybean and canola complex prices in the near term. If tariffs are imposed later, that demand could reverse sharply.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.