
Australian winter grain harvest is well underway, with 5.7 million tonnes delivered to main bulk handlers nationally. Northern NSW and Queensland harvests are at record early paces, while Victoria and South Australia are slow starts.
A large Australian crop with strong exportable surplus adds supply to global wheat and feed grain markets, which is bearish for export prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.