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The Canadian dollar has lost its low-volatility safe-haven status as USD/CAD trades near pandemic highs. Implied volatility rose to the highest among G10 currencies relative to historical volatility, driven by Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, Bank of Canada cuts and political turmoil.
ING sees a full North American trade war pushing the pair toward 1.50.
A North American trade war with 25% tariffs would hit Canadian agricultural and energy exports and could redirect flows across the continent. Tariff risk and a weaker loonie together move the price of grain and oilseed trade between Canada and the US.
think.ing.comFrancesco PesoleDec 18, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
