OPEC+ ministers approved extending oil production quotas for 2025 throughout 2026, with the UAE's 300,000 bpd quota increase moved to April 2025 through September 2026. The Great Eight voluntary cuts of 1.65 million bpd will run until end-2026, and the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cut will be phased out monthly from April 2025 to September 2026.
Compensation schedules for overproduction were extended to June 2026.
Extended quotas and phased voluntary cuts keep supply constrained, supporting crude prices that feed into energy and transport costs. The phase-out timing sets the pace at which supply returns to the market.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.