
OPIS reports the US Gulf Coast distillate market enters 2025 with strong stocks and high export demand. The planned closure of LyondellBasell's 268,000 b/d Houston refinery in Q1 could cut jet and ULSD output, though new refinery expansions should offset it.
A possible Gulf Coast refinery closure and higher Nigerian imports could tighten diesel supply and lift prices in the second and third quarters. Strong export demand supports the outlook for higher distillate costs.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.