
A Scottish farm advisory cereals update says wheat has been in a bearish trend for over two years but could move higher in 2025. It cites dry conditions in southern Russia, slower Black Sea exports, and USDA world wheat ending stocks of 258 Mt.
Poor Russian crop conditions and slower Black Sea supplies could tighten world wheat stocks and support prices, while accelerating EU exports offset some of that tightness.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.