
China's 2024 pork output fell 1.5% to 57.06 million metric tons, the first decline in four years, as official data showed on January 17. Hog slaughter dropped 3.3% to 702.56 million head, and the year-end pig herd fell 1.6%.
Several large producers plan to increase slaughter in 2025.
Lower Chinese output reduces import demand pressure only modestly, while plans for higher 2025 slaughter point to renewed supply growth that could weigh on hog prices.
After 61 past neutral report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.8%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.