An Indian official expects agricultural exports to exceed $50 billion in fiscal 2024-25 after non-basmati rice export curbs were relaxed. Rice exports are forecast at 17-18 million tonnes this fiscal year, up from 14-15 million tonnes.
Earlier curbs on rice, wheat and sugar cost exports an estimated $6-7 billion.
Higher Indian rice shipments increase global supply and put downward pressure on rice prices. The forecast also reflects the strength of Indian export demand.
After 141 past bearish trade events, RICE moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.