
Class III milk futures remain at a discount to spot prices, which suggests the market expects a significant spot break. Spot cheese has held in the 10-cent range seen since the start of 2025, while dry whey has moved as expected.
Class IV is under pressure, with NDM losing its premium to global values and butter futures being sold heavily.
Futures trading below spot points to softer forward milk values unless spot cheese and butter prices recover. Weakness in butter and NDM also pressures the Class IV complex.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.