
Australian barley prices have risen about A$17/t since late December to A$317/t at Outer Harbor, South Australia. Russian barley output for 2024-25 is estimated at 16.25 million tonnes, down 20% on late-season dryness.
Higher US corn futures, driven by tighter global stocks and a delayed Brazilian safrinha crop, also lift barley's competitiveness as a feed grain.
A 20% drop in Russian barley output tightens export supply and leaves Australia and Argentina as the main alternative origins, which supports barley prices and firms the feed complex.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.