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Fern examines how the EU Deforestation Regulation will affect Indonesian palm oil smallholders, who already have limited EU market access. It recommends more funding and direct support to help them meet traceability and geolocation requirements.
If smallholders are excluded, supply from Indonesia could tighten at the margin, but support programs may preserve volumes. The price impact is small and depends on how implementation proceeds.
fern.orgFeb 3, 2025After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
