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USDA data show US milk production rose 0.1% year on year in January 2025, with component-adjusted output up 2.2%. California output fell 5.7% amid H5N1 avian flu outbreaks, and USDA revised its dairy herd count up by 10,000 head.
Higher component yields and a larger herd point to ample milk supply, while avian flu losses in California limit the downside to output and keep supply tight in that state.
After 10 past bearish disease events, MILK moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.7%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.