Lee Mielke's weekly column reports that US dairy products avoided Chinese countertariffs for now, while China imposed new tariffs on US energy and farm equipment. Mexican buyers have grown cautious on US milk powder, and USDA cut its 2025 milk production forecast in the February WASDE.
Tariff threats and softer Mexican demand for milk powder weigh on export outlets, while the lower USDA milk output forecast offers some support to prices.
After 18 past neutral trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -2.9% to +1.1%), and -3.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.