
Arlan Suderman of StoneX said U.S. weekly corn export shipments remain well above the seasonal pace and have been strong most of the marketing year. He puts 2024/25 corn ending stocks at 1.475 billion bushels, below USDA's 1.54 billion, and sees export upside of 50 million bushels.
Strong export demand tightens U.S. corn balance sheets relative to USDA's estimates, which supports prices and could keep feed corn costs firm. The risk is that exports are being frontloaded.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.