APHIS announced that cattle and bison imports from Mexico will resume within days, after being halted in November 2024 over New World screwworm. Approved pre-export inspection pens in Chihuahua and Sonora and a treatment protocol now govern shipments.
Resumed Mexican feeder cattle imports add supply to US feedlots, which is bearish for feeder cattle prices.
After 24 past bearish policy events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 30 past bearish policy events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.