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USDA's FAS expects China to partly replace blocked Canadian canola meal and oil with increased seed imports. Canola seed imports are forecast at 4.1 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 4 million tonnes.
Some large importers are reducing exposure to Canada while small firms are accelerating purchases.
Higher Chinese seed buying supports Canadian canola seed demand, but crushing demand for meal and oil is lost to tariffs. This shifts processing and meal supply and could cap meal prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.