
The US dollar firmed against major currencies after a Commerce Department report showed the economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter, worse than expected but better than some dire forecasts. Consumption remained resilient while imports dragged on GDP, and rate futures priced in four Fed cuts for 2025.
A firmer dollar makes US commodity exports pricier abroad and can pressure dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices, while a weak US economy raises the odds of rate cuts that weigh on the currency.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.