◂ Event Timeline

Apr 25, 2025POLICYUS

Daybreak April 25: Rollins eyes harvest time for trade aid decision

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said USDA will assess market losses from tariffs closer to harvest before deciding on aid, and that a program will be put in place to mitigate damage. The Commodity Credit Corporation fund used for the 2018-2019 aid is down to a few billion dollars, and Rollins expects Congress to replenish it.

WHY IT MATTERS

Aid timing suggests farmers may keep planting and marketing decisions tied to trade uncertainty into harvest, and economists expect tariff impacts on soybeans to take months to show up in prices.

AFFECTSSoybeans◆Corn◆

SOURCE
agri-pulse.comRebekah Alvey, Philip Brasher, Lydia Johnson, Oliver Ward, Noah WicksApr 25, 2025

Price reaction & history

Soybeans◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.3%5d -1.2%20d +1.4%

After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

Mar 31, 2025Rollins: We need to know trade impacts before deciding farm aid | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.5%
Apr 10, 2024Daybreak April 10: GT: I found a way to fund commodity programs | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.5%
Jan 28, 2019Farm subsidies to leap on $9.8 billion in trade aid | 2019-01-28 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.8%
Jun 26, 2020Daybreak: June 26: Key lawmaker calls for new farm bill | 2020-06-26 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+2.7%
Oct 31, 2025Daybreak Oct. 31: Key Republicans still want farm bailout | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.0%

Corn◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.2%5d -2.1%20d -1.5%

After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.

Mar 31, 2025Rollins: We need to know trade impacts before deciding farm aid | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.4%
Apr 10, 2024Daybreak April 10: GT: I found a way to fund commodity programs | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.1%
Jun 26, 2020Daybreak: June 26: Key lawmaker calls for new farm bill | 2020-06-26 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.6%
Jun 26, 2018EPA proposes RVO numbers for 2019 | 2018-06-26 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.3%
Oct 31, 2025Daybreak Oct. 31: Key Republicans still want farm bailout | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.4%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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Corn CORN · GP ▸

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