
StoneX's Josh Linville says China's phosphate exports in January through March 2025 totaled only about 111,000 tons, far below the 900,000-plus tons of a normal year. Phosphate prices have stayed high compared with typical springs, and he expects some farmers to cut fall phosphate applications if supplies stay tight.
Reduced Chinese export flows keep phosphate supply tight and prices elevated, raising fertilizer costs and possibly lowering application rates that affect future crop output.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.