
Rabobank says global urea supplies are fragile because several key exporters are shipping lower volumes than a year earlier. Its analyst expects volatility to persist given supply disruptions, geopolitical factors and natural gas price swings, with prices roughly at the five-year average but 45% above the pre-Russia-Ukraine war average.
Reduced export volumes and gas-linked production costs keep urea prices elevated, which increases fertilizer costs for farmers and import-dependent markets such as New Zealand.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.