US boneless skinless chicken breast prices held their 2025 high of $2.79/lb on May 23. Brazil's first commercial-farm bird flu case, confirmed May 16 in Rio Grande do Sul, led major importers such as China and Mexico to restrict shipments.
US producers saw no immediate chance to sell into Mexico because their prices were too high.
Losing Brazil's export supply tightens global chicken availability and gives US prices extra support on top of an already strong market. Higher US prices depend on whether importers shift demand to US product.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.