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Ukrainian analysts forecast a 2025 barley harvest of 5.1-5.3 million t, about 40% below pre-war levels. China has contracted about 500,000 t of Ukrainian barley for July-August, and Spanish and Italian buyers are increasing purchases.
A sharply smaller Ukrainian crop and strong Chinese and European demand support Black Sea barley export prices. Analysts see values rising into late 2025 if weather hurts the harvest further.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.