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Producer milk prices are falling, mainly because wholesale butter and cheese prices are decreasing. Class III milk makes up more than half of US milk output, and butterfat and milk protein prices are both declining.
Butter is down 27% from its peak, and new USDA pricing formulas take effect in June, which will lower producer revenue.
Lower butter and cheese values and the June formula change point to weaker farm-level milk prices and reduced producer revenue.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.