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CME spot butter fell from $3.20 to $2.30 per lb over a six-month stretch. US butter production rose 5.8% in 2024 as more milk fat went to butter, and cream is now cheap this spring.
The market has moved from shortage concerns to an abundance narrative.
Abundant cream and rising butter output point to continued downward pressure on butter and milk values, with cheap fat supporting butter makers' margins.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.