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USDA projects India will export about 24 million tonnes of rice in the 2025-26 marketing year, roughly 40% of world trade. Record production and bulging government stocks underpin the forecast.
A very large Indian export program would dominate world rice trade and limit sales by other Asian exporters, pressuring rice prices lower.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.