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An investing.com outlook for USD/JPY in H2 2025 says correlations between the pair and key macro drivers have weakened. It cites tariff policy, political risks and US fiscal concerns as weighing on the dollar.
It favors three Fed cuts in 2025 and sees 138.00 as a key downside level.
Weakening correlations and political drivers make currency moves less predictable for importers pricing in yen. A weaker dollar would support dollar-priced feed commodities if the forecast plays out.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.