
The dollar-won was expected to trade around 1,350 won in the week of June 30 to July 4, with markets probing for downside ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. The won closed the prior week at 1,357.40, after a spike to the mid-1,380s on reports of US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites that faded as Iran avoided extreme retaliation.
A stronger won against the dollar lowers the local-currency cost of US commodity imports for Korean buyers, while weak US jobs data could further weaken the dollar and support dollar-denominated grain and meal prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.