
India is allocating a record 5.2 million tonnes of surplus rice from state stocks to ethanol production as inventories swell. The move follows the removal of roughly two years of export restrictions in March, and an ample monsoon is expected to produce an abundant harvest.
Diverting large state rice volumes to ethanol and expected record output point to ample global rice supply, which is bearish for rough rice export prices.
After 100 past bearish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.