China's potash prices rose 100-200 yuan/ton in the week to July 12, 2025, with port 62% white KCl reaching 3,450-3,600 yuan/ton and 52% SOP at 3,950-4,100 yuan/ton. The rally followed port KCl inventories falling below 200,000 tons, maintenance shutdowns at Qinghai Salt Lake, and logistics problems with Russian and Belarusian imports.
Pre-autumn demand also contributed.
Inventory lows and import disruptions tighten Chinese potash supply and push up import-parity costs for fertilizer buyers across Asia. Prices could correct if the autumn demand peak fails to materialize.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.