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ABRAFRIGO estimates Brazil could lose up to $1.3 billion in beef and livestock-related exports to the US in the second half of 2025 if a 50% US import surcharge takes effect in August. Annual losses could reach at least $3 billion from 2026.
Beef tallow, for which the US takes nearly all of Brazil's exports, is of particular concern.
A 50% US tariff would shut Brazilian beef and tallow out of a major market, redirecting supply to other destinations and pressuring global beef and tallow prices. US beef supply constraints could partly offset the effect in domestic prices.
valorinternational.globo.comRafael WalendorffJul 17, 2025After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
